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04 December 2010 ~ Comments Off

Consumer Confidence Reaches High Same Week Debt Panel Calls for Change

Ayinde O. Chase – AHN News Editor

Miami, FL, United States (AHN) – Despite an estimated national debt of $14 trillion and a presidential panel calling for massive overhauls, consumer confidence is at its highest levels since the 2008 economic meltdown.

Registering the highest reading since September 2008, the RBC Consumer Outlook Index increased 3.2 points to 45.2 in December as a result of improved current conditions, employment security, expectations and investment attitudes. All of these sentiments come at the onset of the holiday shopping season and before many financial analysts say other sectors in the already-waning economy are softening for future collapse.

Case in point–the commercial real estate sector, which has not experienced the same rate of foreclosure as residential foreclosure,yet, especially in South Florida.

Foreclosures have not occurred on current loans that are going to be defaulted on. In addition,- financial institutions have not worked out loan modification programs that aren’t being endorsed or supported by the government for commercial real estate.

To compound matters there is a lot of property that banks aren’t lending on and loans are being defaulted and will ultimately drive the commercial real estate sector to dive even deeper.

Many worry that the financial upheaval occurring in Europe now could strike the United States if American lawmakers and citizens don’t act now. Failure to act could cause international investors such as China to demand higher interest payments, further compounding the debt.

Despite the foreboding predictions by those in the know, consumer confidence has been on the rise for three months in a row and has broken through the top of the recent range. Additionally, even with the recent improvements in consumer sentiment, the RBC index remains well below its long-term average of 50 points and continues to reflect a very modest economic recovery.

“Consumers are entering the holiday season with greater hope and optimism than at any point since September 2008 — just before the global financial crisis hit a fever pitch—closing out 2010 on a high note,” said Marc Harris, co-head of Global Research at RBC Capital Markets.

He went on to say, “Although the RBC Consumer Outlook Index witnessed a sharp improvement this month, it still reads below the long-term average, which is in line with what we believe will continue to be a backdrop of cautious consumer spending.”

The United States is currently spending $3 billion a day more than it collects in federal revenues.

A bipartisan presidential panel is calling for a sweeping overhaul of the federal government and how it spends its money in an effort to reverse America’s spiraling national debt and make the U.S. economy more competitive. The changes would impact all Americans for generations.

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform issued a report this week recommending reforms in Medicare and Social Security, a simplified tax code, higher gas taxes, lower agricultural subsidies, hard caps on government spending and a long-term reduction in the federal workforce.

“After all the talk about debt and deficits, it is long past time for America’s leaders to put up or shut up,” the report says. “The era of debt denial is over, and there can be no turning back.”

Despite the harsh fiscal realities facing the nation, this month four in 10 respondents said the country is on the right track, up from 35 percent last month, and they are beginning to feel better about their local economies.

In terms of expectations for 2011, 54 percent of respondents predicted inflation will be higher next year, while just 9 percent said it will be lower. However, regarding the outlook for unemployment and the stock market in 2011, U.S. consumers are mixed. About 35 percent of respondents predicted unemployment will go higher, while 25 percent said it will decrease and 30 percent said it will remain at its current level.

One-quarter predicted the stock market will go up while 24 percent say it will go lower. Approximately 38 percent of consumers currently invested in the stock market expect it to go higher next year.

The federal debt commission will vote Friday on whether to forward the recommendation package to the full Congress.

Article © AHN – All Rights Reserved

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